From Winamop.com
The Most Frugal Method
by Mike Hickman
But the frugal model doesnt always work. Doctor Minchin dabbed his brow with his handkerchief. It was only after the dabbing that he thought to check it. There are things it can miss. Sometimes you need the complexity.
He hadnt meant it to sound like a protest, but look, here he couldnt stand by and watch this newcomer trash his work without even the required PowerPoint slides. Or perhaps even credentials. Minchin had asked round at the reception Professors Sibony and Susstein and Drebin and the rest. Where had Kahneman come from? Harvard? Yale? MIT? And not a one of them had been able to answer him. Pixley had suggested that hed heard tell that there might be the vaguest whispers of the man having connections somewhere with the government. But that must all be very hush-hush, if so. The modern repository of so much data, Dr Google, hadnt been able to reveal anything about the man. Not even so much as a photograph. Not that anyone would want to take a photograph. To describe Kahneman as nondescript would be to raise peoples expectations too far. He just sort of was. Standard torso, standard numbers of limbs, standard expression on standard face. Like he had been averaged from the available data. Before being poured into the most average of suits.
Even now, there was nothing in Kahnemans expression to suggest that it might require anything like your actual, even common or garden, adjective. Yes, came the precisely measured voice. And you are, no doubt, Doctor Minchin, going to share with us the promise of AI, are you not?
He was, damn it. That was precisely where the presentation was supposed to be heading. If you needed a properly sophisticated analysis that took account of all the variables, then you needed some form of AI to wrangle it for you. The sheer number of data points available now, if you had access if, say, the social media company had allowed you access meant that the traditional methods, even the most sophisticated of the traditional methods, wasnt going to produce results in anything like the time they didnt have available to them.
He wants to win, doesnt he? Minchin said, with a look towards his colleagues that wanted them all to acknowledge who they were working for here. And then a look towards Kahneman that needed him to own up to who he must have been working for, too. Well, if he does if the party does then hes going to need AI. And its going to cost.
And there it was, the long and the short of it. And not even so much as a bullet point down on the PowerPoint.
I see, said the man with the connections. Although surely not as many connections as they were talking about here. Didnt he know that Facebook used 98 data points alone to target ads? If hed have waited until the final bullet point of slide two, he would have done. And then hed have begun to appreciate that this was just to target ads. Because what they were talking about went beyond targeting ads. This was behaviour they were talking about. It could be done, but they were going to need AI. Slides twenty-eight and twenty-nine would have made that point. Slide thirty would have reinforced it.
We wont be needing AI, said the man who had so soundly eluded Dr Google. But was, in no way, as immune as any of them from manipulation. Surely.
Minchins colleagues rhubarbed a little around the table. Not enough for any one objection to be heard. And all of it directed as much at Minchin go on, mate, do your thing; prove it to him as to the besuited non-entity.
Well, then, were back to the frugal model, arent we? Minchin said, his confidence boosted by his peers. And, I tell you, yes, you can get a lot from the power of simple rules. You can. But they can be so easily upset
Fingers were steepled. How?
Minchin sighed. If the man didnt even know that much Alright. You want to predict wholl jump bail, right?
Some way distant from what were attempting to influence here, but Ill go with it, Doctor Minchin. Carry on.
So, the frugal model says that two key things will predict it better than almost anything else.
Age and whether theyve missed court dates before. Yes, yes, yes, Doctor Minchin. Ive read the same books as you.
Ah! Minchin held up a finger. Not the one hed have wanted to hold up, but it was a good feeling, nonetheless. But what if theyve caught a cold, eh? That might stop them. What if personal circumstances get in the way. What if And this was always the example given in the books. What if theyve broken a leg?
The nondescript gentleman with the possible governmental connections chewed on his lip. He toyed with the full glass of water on the desk in front of him. He tapped the folder hed brought with him to the meeting but never once opened.
I think Ive proved my point, Doctor Minchin said.
And then came the shake of the head.
Not at all, said the gentleman. You see, we wont be needing the frugal model. And we wont be needing AI. Not if were to have the level of influence we need here over the electorate.
No? Really? Then what do we need?
The gent leaned forward into his smile. My dear, Dr Minchin, that should be obvious. We make sure they all have broken legs."
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